The Stock Market is a Roller Coaster: Prepare for the Ups and Downs

IT'S REMINISCENT OF THE OLD children's tale about an old Chinese farmer who tells his friends his story, and they enjoin with "That's good" or "That's bad" on alternating lines:

Farmer: My horse ran away.

Friends: That's bad.

Farmer: She came back with a majestic stallion by her side.

Friends: That's good.

Farmer: My son tried to ride the stallion and broke his hip.

Friends: That's bad.

Farmer: The emperor came through town that week and took every able-bodied young man away to war. My son was spared.

Friends: That's good, et cetera.

Recent market trends bring this story to mind. On this emotional roller coaster, it's hard to know whether to laugh or cry. For all practical purposes, the war is over. That's good. But the battle to win over Iraq has just begun. That's bad. The markets in the U.S. have been cheered by the quick success. Good. The Japanese market has hit a new 20-year low. Bad. We could go on. It's been a wild month for news.

Fears of the SARS epidemic have hit economies in East Asia and Canada and further injured an already-weakened airline industry. A bigger question is how devastating the epidemic will become, and will it hinder an already weak recovery, or worse yet become a worldwide epidemic. Embezzlement charges caused a temporary bank run among recent immigrants who weren't aware of FDIC insurance at Abacus Federal Savings Bank in New York's Chinatown. Earnings news is rather positive, despite a few negatives. Many big names have provided surprises on the upside, while fewer companies are disappointing analysts, it seems.

Despite the recent uptrend in U.S. markets, most investors aren't particularly cheered. Most still wonder how long it will take to recover what was lost in the past few years. That focus, however, won't make the recovery come any sooner. We need to be happy with 10% growth, a substantial positive trend for those who aren't carrying any baggage. Too, for those who put their money in, instead of following the crowd and taking it out, 10% growth ought to compensate for twice the losses. The real question is whether individual investors will continue to run for the exits, hold their ground, or redouble their efforts to save and invest more.

I'm continually amazed how investors put more money in when markets are topping out, and pull money back when markets are at or near bottoms. Described in that way, virtually no one would do it, but when we add the emotional component, it is really quite easy to understand. Market bottoms come after drops, which often come with reduced portfolio values and emotional turmoil. In addition, drops come when the economy is weak, and many people need to use their money for personal or family needs while income is temporarily reduced. This underlies the primary weakness of the buy-and-hold strategy. This solid strategy is only successful if held to consistently. However, most people cannot or will not follow through on it in difficult times. Thus, it may be less effective than we traditionally imagine. No, the strategy itself is not flawed, but practically speaking, it may not be viable for real life.

Each investor needs to consider his/her own investing patterns. If you are inclined to disinvest during downtimes, a thorough re-evaluation may be in line. Re-evaluate both your strategy choices and your ability to maintain them. If you are unable to keep focused or are likely to have circumstance which prevent you from following your strategy when its most important, you need a different approach. There's no benefit to having a wonderful game-plan that you can't follow. Imagine a basketball coach whose plan includes putting in Michael Jordan when the team gets behind, but Michael Jordan isn't on the team! If you are unable to follow a buy-and-hold strategy, your ability to profit in downtimes is severely restrained. Sadly, this is when the greatest opportunity is available. Thus, a compensating strategy must be developed.

Investors must realize, however, that increasing returns often comes with higher risk. Thus, if one cannot buy and hold when one finds it unpleasant, the other alternatives involve taking on greater risk. No one really wants to hear that, but it is hard truth. High returns require higher risk, and if you are unable to "weather the storm" in times like this (what I call easy risk), you'll need to take larger short-term risks (hard risk), or else consign oneself to lower returns.

Easy risk is a long-term safety play. We risk that valuations will fluctuate, but over the long term we have confidence that they will be relatively stable. We give up our ability to observe high valuations, knowing that what we own is still the same.

Hard risk involves taking real, serious, short-term gambles. It is not a strategy that I advise, nor is it the wisest approach to investing, but it is a corner that people sometimes paint themselves into. That's bad!

We continue to advise our readers to stick with the buy-and-hold strategy. While there is obviously risk of fluctuating prices, these tend to balance themselves out in the long-run. If you have a long-run focus, buy-and hold is still the safest approach. That's good!

To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson's Investment Advisor Services, visit http://www.valueview.net

Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients. His own newsletter, Investor's Value View, is distributed worldwide and provides general money tips and investment advice to readers both internationally, and in the U.S.

In The News:


pen paper and inkwell


cat break through


The Information Age

It is wonderful to be alive in the information age.... Read More

Precision Money Management

This article describes the model of a natural relationship between... Read More

Shadow Bull

As one of my regular readers you know I have... Read More

Tips to Finding Other People?s Simple Trading Plans

Did you know you can make money (and a lot... Read More

Series 7 Exam

What is the Series 7 Exam? If you... Read More

Emotional Maturity

If you are going to be a winner in the... Read More

Dollar Cost Averaging

Dollar cost averaging is one of the most popular ideas... Read More

Trapeze Artist - Swinging with the Stock Market

When we go to the circus we see a trapeze... Read More

Inverted Interest Rates

Inverted interest rates? What's that? Who cares? Even if you... Read More

Trading For A Living - Part 1

There can't be many traders who haven't at least considered... Read More

How Covered Calls Turned a Trader Around

Sidney felt sick as she looked at her latest OptionsXpress... Read More

Low Expense Ratio

One of the big advertising kicks today from mutual funds... Read More

Stock Trading - Daddy, Why Arent We Rich?

One Saturday morning, while he was sitting at his computer... Read More

Economists #2

Economists know more about how the fragments of society work... Read More

Whos Calling?

Its dinnertime and the phone rings. It's Joe Noname with... Read More

Wal-Mart: Discount Store, Discounted Stock?

As GuruFocus updates the stock buys and sells of gurus,... Read More

Momentum

One of the basic laws of physics states that a... Read More

Market Experience of a Naïve Stock Operator

Sometime in the third quarter of 1997, someone told me... Read More

The Surgeon General

The Surgeon General of the United States says that smoking... Read More

Stocks & Oil, Sat Jun 18th, 2005

Both the stock market and oil prices rallied recently, which... Read More

Stock Market Education; Day Trading for Beginnners; How to Pick Stocks

The trading method you employ to approach the stock market... Read More

Lies, Damn Lies and Mutual Fund Returns

How many times has this happened to you? You're at... Read More

Robert Rodriguez Weathers the Stock Market

Robert Rodriguez likes to buy stocks at their lows. When... Read More

The Seven Mistakes All Novice Traders Make and How to Correct Them

We learnt the following the hard way! If any of... Read More

Traders, Defend Against the Dreaded Death Spiral.

It has often been said that there is only two... Read More

Shorting Stocks ? The Basics, Part II of II

After the publication of the first part of this two... Read More

One Way Street

Ever turn down a street, get half way and suddenly... Read More

Inertia Syndrome

When it comes to buying a stock or mutual fund... Read More

How We Eluded The Bear Of 2000

The date October 13, 2000 will forever be embedded in... Read More

Dividend Reinvestment Plans: Investing on Automatic Pilot

If you're like many investors who squander those small dividend... Read More

A Stock Market Investment Plan that Never Lets You Down

The bulls and bears of the stock market are both... Read More

Understanding a Stocks PEG Ratio

A PEG ratio cannot be used alone but is a... Read More

How To Buy And Hold

One of the most believed bits of conventional wisdom from... Read More